Patrick Ow encourages individuals and organisations to consider developing a pandemic survival plan if there is no vaccine.
[The diagrams can be obtained from https://executeastrategy.com/pandemic-survival-plan]
Using the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic as a model, experts have suggested that the COVID-19 outbreak will last between 18 and 24 months.
A group of researchers at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) suggest that the outbreak would not end until 60% to 70% of the human population is immune to the virus. This may take between 18 and 24 months.
Scientists have launched many accelerated programs to have a vaccine commercially developed to prevent the coronavirus by the middle of 2021. But this could take longer.
Without a mass vaccine in place, countries will be doing their best to contain the virus with contact tracing and targeted quarantines.
Now is a great time to reflect on what we have learned during the current global pandemic and understand what we could do better over the next two years.
Globally, The Pandemic is Getting Worse
The biggest economies are reopening. This means more social mobility. It also means more opportunities for the virus to spread.
No activity will be without the risk of coronavirus.
Already, scientists who are tracking virus trends are seeing signs that re-opening is leading to a spike in cases. As such, the total number of worldwide cases and deaths will only be increasing without any sign of flattening, as shown here.
If, as most experts believe, an effective vaccine won’t be ready until well into 2021, we’ll all be co-existing with the coronavirus for the next year or longer without a magic bullet.
This will require us to reset our expectations and awareness and change our behaviour.
We can all resonate with the following research findings: (Fortune, 2020)
- Americans believe that their work lives will not go back to normal. About 7 in 10 U.S. workers say the pandemic will permanently change the nature of work and their careers. Half are considering a career change.